Virgin wil HSL overnemen, "liever vandaag nog dan morgen" aldus het britse bedrijf.
Maar wie het laatst lacht, lacht het hardst. Telt u even mee?
Virgin:
Cross Country
+
Westcoast is 2 concessies.
-
Cross Country (Verloren aan DB) is 1 concessie.
Tenders voor:
Westcoast (indien toegewezen automatisch uitgesloten voor Eastcoast)
NS/Abellio:
Hoofdrailnet concessie Nederland tot 2015
+
HSL concessie Nederland, met uitschieter naar Brussel
+
Northern Rail in Noord Engeland
+
MerseyRail (rond Liverpool)
+
Abellio Great Eastern
+
Abellio Deutschland
+
Abellio Surrey
+
RegioNS Hoekse Lijn
+
RegioNS Zutphen - Apeldoorn
Tenders voor:
InterCity Westcoast met Preferred Bidder status. (tot Maart 2013 voor Virgin Trains)
Voorkeurspositie bij nieuwe aanbesteding van de Northern Franchise in 2014 wegens "uitmuntende" prestaties.
Je hoeft geen wiskundige te zijn om te zien welke "toko" het beste boert op het spoor.
De Abellio geweren zijn geladen en in het vizier is het doel scherp in beeld. Inter City WestCoast, het laatste Virgin Trains bolwerk is met uitsterven bedreigd en men zit er flink te zweten. Een kat in het nauw maakt rare sprongen, zo ook Virgin Trains.
Waar NS via Abellio in het Verenigd Koninkrijk een stevige poot in het treinverkeer heeft verworven begint de positie in het thuisland wat te wankelen, al dan niet onder druk van de media als gevolg van twee winters met een stevige ontwrichting van de treinloop ten gevolgen. 2015 komt met de dag dichterbij, maar een heel hoofdrailnet concessie.... dat durft men bij Virgin niet aan. "Dat lukt nooit, die Hollanders gaan het onderhands aan NS gunnen"... en daar heeft meneer Pacey (baas van Virgin Trains) volkomen gelijk in, want als de Nederlandse overheid ergens geen zin in heeft, is het wel de aanbesteding van het hoofdrailnet waarmee zij de grip op het spoor verliest en buitenlandse (staats) bedrijven een bedreiging kunnen vormen voor NS.
En dan horen ze in Engeland iets dat als muziek in de oren klinkt. Een dochteronderneming van NS schijnt in het thuisland te wankelen. Op de bakermat van NS rommelt het. Dat zelfde NS dat via Abellio zijn geweren gericht heeft op Virgin Trains schijnt een Achilleshiel te hebben. Kunnen ze de kogel die hun met uitsterven bedreigt ontwijken door van positie te wisselen? Weg uit Engeland waar de situatie tegenover Abellio en Arriva bijna onhoudbaar is, Vluchten naar het vaste land van Europa om daar onze heil te zoeken?
In allerijl wordt een businessplan samengesteld en gepresenteerd bij het Nederlandse ministerie van transport en milieu... Hard schreeuwen dat "wij" het beter kunnen dan de Hollanders.
De Nederlandse minister is niet gek, en laat niet meer van zich horen. In de tussentijd is zij in gesprek met NS om een oplossing te zoeken.... Dat NS in het buitenland steeds groter wordt is natuurlijk goed voor de Nederlandse staatskas, maar dat een buitenlands bedrijf in Nederland wil rijden is vloeken in de kerk.
Als we nou eens de HSL opnemen in het hoofdrailnet, of desnoods verkopen aan Abellio, dan blijft het een Hollands feest binnen NS met maar een slachtoffer...
donderdag 10 november 2011
dinsdag 8 februari 2011
Private investors should build High Speed 2
A radical change in spending might trigger the best outcome for the tax payer.
Not the hard working man in the office or woman teaching our children, but large wealthy global players should finance HS2 (High speed 2).
It's not that strange, after all, Evergreen 3 (massive line speed and capacity improvements) is funded by Chiltern Railways via a smart construction where the TOC (Train Operating Company) pays more to for track access charges to Network Rail who fund the project. Train operator and Network Rail happy. But the biggest winner is you and me who get it all without a penny of our tax money used.
I do support the plans for a high speed railway from London to the Midlands and Scotland, but the way of funding (tax money) and deliver timescale (over 30 years) is something I object to. At the moment the coalition government - with the Tory's at the steering wheel - are only planning to spend 750 million in the project which will cost in excess over 31 Billion in total. One really has to ask if the British tax payer should fund such a project when education and healthcare is under enormous pressure of spending cuts.
Only recently Labour announced to review their position on supporting the project. This came a bit as a surprise to me, after all, High Speed two is a Labour baby and it was them who convinced the Tory's to support the project as well. Now that the route is known in detail and millions have been spend by Greengauge 21, Network Rail and High Speed 2 Ltd. the exact price tag for building the line should be known.
And that is exactly the point where my opinion kicks in. Large consortia should be formed to build and operate HS2. With private funding from large companies the project would not hammer into the government budget and In return the investors will be granted a multi decennium lasting franchise to allow them a return of Investment (RoI) and make profit. Every company or body should be involved in funding and operating the railway. If Heathrow or Birmingham airport want a station, let them pay for it. After all it will generate a steady flow of air passengers to their airports.
Another part of this financing structure is the possibility to speed things up. Where government is planning on a 30 year construction time, private investors want to make best use of their money. And this will stimulate them to do it in half the time in order to get to the profit making business as soon as possible. If the railway has been build in 15 years rather then 30, the line would generate income much sooner, making significant reductions in spending over the total lifespan of the franchise.
Thirty billion is a lot of money to invest and no company I know of has it to play around with it. That is where government should step in. If the government really wants a high speed line to Glasgow then half of the project should be funded through taxes. Note that when twice as much money is available from day one, the project could also be build twice as fast, resulting in a 15 year construction time, dramatically improving the business case for High Speed 2.
Now that we have two parties involved in funding the railway, the operator (private sector) has the right to start operating trains for lets say 50 years in order for them to get a RoI and indeed make a profit with their operation. Over the lifetime of their fifty year franchise the average investment in the railway comes at ￡82,417 per day. If they will be able to operate 150 trains over the railway each day, the price tag per train would come at ￡550.-
And here comes the governmental involvement of the franchise. If the Government should have 50% shares in the operation they could restrict ticket fares to the normal national average plus a high speed supplement depending on destination. ￡550 per train might sound much over the entire lifetime of the franchise, but selling 10 ￡55 tickets already pay back the investment in the railway. If these trains carry an average of 150 persons the price tag of the RoI does show a very healthy business model. Please grab your calculator and start counting with me. 150 (persons) times 150 (trains per day) = 22,500 passengers per day. Do that times ￡55 (average ticket price) and we're over ￡1,2000,000 per day in ticket sales. Do that times 365 (days per year) and your looking at a figure close to 450 million. At this speed the 15 billion investment by the public sector could be regained in 33 years. But note we have calculated only 150 passengers per train. This is a "worst case scenario" with a randomly picked number of services. It might turn out this way, but it is more likely we can see up to 16 departures from London per hour. The Midland and Scotland trains to and from Heathrow not even included.
After the franchise expires the railway transfers to government hands who can sent out an invitation to tender for everyone willing to take over the service, just like other franchises.
With less support for HS2 then a year ago, the time has come to look at alternative ways of funding improvements to our railways.
Not the hard working man in the office or woman teaching our children, but large wealthy global players should finance HS2 (High speed 2).
It's not that strange, after all, Evergreen 3 (massive line speed and capacity improvements) is funded by Chiltern Railways via a smart construction where the TOC (Train Operating Company) pays more to for track access charges to Network Rail who fund the project. Train operator and Network Rail happy. But the biggest winner is you and me who get it all without a penny of our tax money used.
I do support the plans for a high speed railway from London to the Midlands and Scotland, but the way of funding (tax money) and deliver timescale (over 30 years) is something I object to. At the moment the coalition government - with the Tory's at the steering wheel - are only planning to spend 750 million in the project which will cost in excess over 31 Billion in total. One really has to ask if the British tax payer should fund such a project when education and healthcare is under enormous pressure of spending cuts.
Only recently Labour announced to review their position on supporting the project. This came a bit as a surprise to me, after all, High Speed two is a Labour baby and it was them who convinced the Tory's to support the project as well. Now that the route is known in detail and millions have been spend by Greengauge 21, Network Rail and High Speed 2 Ltd. the exact price tag for building the line should be known.
And that is exactly the point where my opinion kicks in. Large consortia should be formed to build and operate HS2. With private funding from large companies the project would not hammer into the government budget and In return the investors will be granted a multi decennium lasting franchise to allow them a return of Investment (RoI) and make profit. Every company or body should be involved in funding and operating the railway. If Heathrow or Birmingham airport want a station, let them pay for it. After all it will generate a steady flow of air passengers to their airports.
Another part of this financing structure is the possibility to speed things up. Where government is planning on a 30 year construction time, private investors want to make best use of their money. And this will stimulate them to do it in half the time in order to get to the profit making business as soon as possible. If the railway has been build in 15 years rather then 30, the line would generate income much sooner, making significant reductions in spending over the total lifespan of the franchise.
Thirty billion is a lot of money to invest and no company I know of has it to play around with it. That is where government should step in. If the government really wants a high speed line to Glasgow then half of the project should be funded through taxes. Note that when twice as much money is available from day one, the project could also be build twice as fast, resulting in a 15 year construction time, dramatically improving the business case for High Speed 2.
Now that we have two parties involved in funding the railway, the operator (private sector) has the right to start operating trains for lets say 50 years in order for them to get a RoI and indeed make a profit with their operation. Over the lifetime of their fifty year franchise the average investment in the railway comes at ￡82,417 per day. If they will be able to operate 150 trains over the railway each day, the price tag per train would come at ￡550.-
And here comes the governmental involvement of the franchise. If the Government should have 50% shares in the operation they could restrict ticket fares to the normal national average plus a high speed supplement depending on destination. ￡550 per train might sound much over the entire lifetime of the franchise, but selling 10 ￡55 tickets already pay back the investment in the railway. If these trains carry an average of 150 persons the price tag of the RoI does show a very healthy business model. Please grab your calculator and start counting with me. 150 (persons) times 150 (trains per day) = 22,500 passengers per day. Do that times ￡55 (average ticket price) and we're over ￡1,2000,000 per day in ticket sales. Do that times 365 (days per year) and your looking at a figure close to 450 million. At this speed the 15 billion investment by the public sector could be regained in 33 years. But note we have calculated only 150 passengers per train. This is a "worst case scenario" with a randomly picked number of services. It might turn out this way, but it is more likely we can see up to 16 departures from London per hour. The Midland and Scotland trains to and from Heathrow not even included.
After the franchise expires the railway transfers to government hands who can sent out an invitation to tender for everyone willing to take over the service, just like other franchises.
With less support for HS2 then a year ago, the time has come to look at alternative ways of funding improvements to our railways.
maandag 7 februari 2011
Never forget what we have.
Capacity, one of those words most heard if we talk about our railways. It dominates the rail press, it is required by TOC’s and passengers are continuously shouting for it. With clogging roads, polluting cheap short haul air and ever increasing demand our government decided that a third mainline to Scotland is needed.
To battle short haul air, the line will be build to allow speeds up to 250 mph. This brings the advantage of a London to Glasgow travel time in under two and a half hours. Yes I do support this new way forward and I hope that other high speed rail projects in the UK will follow which might allow a Penzance to London day trip to become a reality for many.
But before HS2 is build and Glasgow is just two hours from London away we will be a roughly thirty years older. Yes, this mainline will be delivered in stages in a thirty year lifespan. How long that is… well, we probably have children by then, and some of us might even have the joy to have grand children. Some of us might be retired by then.
But one thing has been spinning across my mind for a long time… What will be done to make sure capacity is in place to move England until High Speed two is fully operational?
Only recently the Hitchin fly-over was approved increasing throughput on Cambridge Junction and allowing many trains to remain at speed when thundering through the station on their way to the north. According to NetworkRail the number of passengers who pass this junction has been increased by 53% in the last decade alone and the amount of freight has seen an impressive increase of over 60%.
NetworkRail also claims it reduces the number of delays to train services by nearly 30,000 minutes every year.
If the numbers above are correct then we might expect a further increase in rail travel over this decade by at least another fifty percent, simply because the economy will recover, roads will be even more congested, petrol prices will rise even further and one particular airline will lose the confidence of it’s passengers which will no longer accept the terms and conditions, lack of customer service and no form of compensation if something goes wrong and people find themselves stranded on an airport.
The Hichin Fly-over is indeed a warm welcome to the East Coast mainline to improve the reliability of the services and to speed up the journeys for those passengers otherwise affected by late running trains to and from Cambridge.
But this won’t be enough to cope with future demand and drastic changes are required a few miles south if we want to increase the number of services using the railway whilst maintaining a good reliability.
The biggest challenge ahead of us is to eliminate the bottleneck called Welwyn viaduct and tunnels. Imagine what would happen if there was a four track mainline over the valley and through the hills. More commuter trains could be seen between London and Cambridge, Ely and Kings Lynn. City’s like Lincoln, Boston, Grimsby/Cleethorpes and Skegness could be connected to London with three to four trains a day. Other destinations already served by open access operators might see an increase in the number of trains. In all these cases local economies would benefit from better connections and boost property development and increase the number of jobs.
High Speed two is a big project and it will help to move the UK in future, but before that to happen we must seek for alternatives to cope with the expected demand before the project is finished in thirty years from now. Demand will most likely increase by another fifty percent or more in just one decade. After the West Coast mainline upgrade the East Coast is in desperate need of some big improvements.
To battle short haul air, the line will be build to allow speeds up to 250 mph. This brings the advantage of a London to Glasgow travel time in under two and a half hours. Yes I do support this new way forward and I hope that other high speed rail projects in the UK will follow which might allow a Penzance to London day trip to become a reality for many.
But before HS2 is build and Glasgow is just two hours from London away we will be a roughly thirty years older. Yes, this mainline will be delivered in stages in a thirty year lifespan. How long that is… well, we probably have children by then, and some of us might even have the joy to have grand children. Some of us might be retired by then.
But one thing has been spinning across my mind for a long time… What will be done to make sure capacity is in place to move England until High Speed two is fully operational?
Only recently the Hitchin fly-over was approved increasing throughput on Cambridge Junction and allowing many trains to remain at speed when thundering through the station on their way to the north. According to NetworkRail the number of passengers who pass this junction has been increased by 53% in the last decade alone and the amount of freight has seen an impressive increase of over 60%.
NetworkRail also claims it reduces the number of delays to train services by nearly 30,000 minutes every year.
If the numbers above are correct then we might expect a further increase in rail travel over this decade by at least another fifty percent, simply because the economy will recover, roads will be even more congested, petrol prices will rise even further and one particular airline will lose the confidence of it’s passengers which will no longer accept the terms and conditions, lack of customer service and no form of compensation if something goes wrong and people find themselves stranded on an airport.
The Hichin Fly-over is indeed a warm welcome to the East Coast mainline to improve the reliability of the services and to speed up the journeys for those passengers otherwise affected by late running trains to and from Cambridge.
But this won’t be enough to cope with future demand and drastic changes are required a few miles south if we want to increase the number of services using the railway whilst maintaining a good reliability.
The biggest challenge ahead of us is to eliminate the bottleneck called Welwyn viaduct and tunnels. Imagine what would happen if there was a four track mainline over the valley and through the hills. More commuter trains could be seen between London and Cambridge, Ely and Kings Lynn. City’s like Lincoln, Boston, Grimsby/Cleethorpes and Skegness could be connected to London with three to four trains a day. Other destinations already served by open access operators might see an increase in the number of trains. In all these cases local economies would benefit from better connections and boost property development and increase the number of jobs.
High Speed two is a big project and it will help to move the UK in future, but before that to happen we must seek for alternatives to cope with the expected demand before the project is finished in thirty years from now. Demand will most likely increase by another fifty percent or more in just one decade. After the West Coast mainline upgrade the East Coast is in desperate need of some big improvements.
There is hope for London commuters, it’s all about long term vision and investment
A good friend of me and myself are standing on the platform at Hither Green rail station in south east London when an eight car (2×4) networker pulls in to the station. It’s half past eight and in the middle of the morning commute peak when the train doors open. But no one can board the train as it’s already jam packet from top to bottom with conditions even worse then those seen of pigs in the bio-industry.
Not long after a second train enters the station, same conditions and although being full already it has to call at Lewisham as well before entering the endless queue towards London Bridge. It’s no surprise people are complaining and god knows how many times a week they have to face these horrifying conditions. And this is a station served by something like four trains to the capital per hour, perhaps more during the peak period. But what’s the point of a train calling at a station when no one seems to be able to board it anyway?
And after a good twenty minutes we gave up on the train to London and boarded the first one to Sidcup. A decision which saved us a lot of inconvenience when we boarded a train to London a few station calls down the line. We had a seat and when we drove back to the capital and entered Hither Green again people were still not able to board the train in fare payer worthy conditions. After twenty five minutes we were reluctant to find ourselves boarding a crowded, but not extremely overcrowded Capital Connect service to St Pancras.
Today I boarded a train at my local station Almere Centre in the middle of the morning peak towards Amsterdam. The platform is full and I guess some 200 or more are intending to travel on the next service towards our capital city or the airport where this train will terminate. An eight car train enters the station and although this train has called at two large stations before to pick up the workforce Almost everyone can fiend themselves a seat. The revenue protection team is even able to do their round through the train. Four of them do the upper level while the other two do the lower level of this double-decker.
At Amsterdam Central almost six hundred people alight from the train. They were able to read their free newspaper, drink coffee or enjoy the landscape passing by.
You might say that comparing these two situations is like comparing an elephant with a mosquito. But actually the conditions are pretty much the same, it just covers a larger area. Its horrible to drive to work by car in or around Amsterdam. And although Amsterdam itself is not as big as London, the commuters come from places as far as fifty kilometres away. Especially Almere and Lelystad are big commuter hotspots with more then 250.000 people from these two cities to Amsterdam alone. And because driving isn’t an option for many, most use the train. You can accuse the Dutch state owned railway of many things but not for a lack of vision. Almere is to build another 50.000 houses in the next decade and as a response to this the rail corridor to Amsterdam and Schiphol airport is being upgraded to handle twice as many trains before it is actually needed.
In the UK, and especially around London overcrowding is battled by even more fare increases or yet another platform extension. Increasing fares is only good for the company’s cash-flow, but not in the interest of it’s passengers. Platform extensions are only a short term solution but not adequate to cope with the demand expected in the next twenty to thirty years. And although that seems to be far into the future, we have reached that point long since. Ask the commuters at Hither Green what they think about their South Eastern when they are faced with severely overcrowded trains and have to squeeze themselves in on their daily commute to London.
The solution for London can be found in and around Amsterdam. If you don’t have the space for longer trains, or when you faced the limits of your network capacity a while ago, there is still space to expand and gain a good forty five percent increase in available capacity by going up. Add a second deck to your train and magic things will happen. Large doors will allow passengers to board and alight fast, two decks will allow more people to find a seat or to travel by train. The TOC might even use less trains to London, resulting in some capacity relief, the queues to London Bridge are something of the past and as a result travel times to the capital are reduced by an average of 7 minutes per train.
And yes, it will take a long time for this to happen, and it will be as expansive as building Crossrail. But the good thing is that you can order trains from the shelve and get them relatively cheap. You can transport many more people, you can speed up services into London, you can board a train at half past eight in the hight of the morning peak and you can find a seat. And what’s more important, you do have the capacity in place to move London for the next fifty years.
Not long after a second train enters the station, same conditions and although being full already it has to call at Lewisham as well before entering the endless queue towards London Bridge. It’s no surprise people are complaining and god knows how many times a week they have to face these horrifying conditions. And this is a station served by something like four trains to the capital per hour, perhaps more during the peak period. But what’s the point of a train calling at a station when no one seems to be able to board it anyway?
And after a good twenty minutes we gave up on the train to London and boarded the first one to Sidcup. A decision which saved us a lot of inconvenience when we boarded a train to London a few station calls down the line. We had a seat and when we drove back to the capital and entered Hither Green again people were still not able to board the train in fare payer worthy conditions. After twenty five minutes we were reluctant to find ourselves boarding a crowded, but not extremely overcrowded Capital Connect service to St Pancras.
Today I boarded a train at my local station Almere Centre in the middle of the morning peak towards Amsterdam. The platform is full and I guess some 200 or more are intending to travel on the next service towards our capital city or the airport where this train will terminate. An eight car train enters the station and although this train has called at two large stations before to pick up the workforce Almost everyone can fiend themselves a seat. The revenue protection team is even able to do their round through the train. Four of them do the upper level while the other two do the lower level of this double-decker.
At Amsterdam Central almost six hundred people alight from the train. They were able to read their free newspaper, drink coffee or enjoy the landscape passing by.
You might say that comparing these two situations is like comparing an elephant with a mosquito. But actually the conditions are pretty much the same, it just covers a larger area. Its horrible to drive to work by car in or around Amsterdam. And although Amsterdam itself is not as big as London, the commuters come from places as far as fifty kilometres away. Especially Almere and Lelystad are big commuter hotspots with more then 250.000 people from these two cities to Amsterdam alone. And because driving isn’t an option for many, most use the train. You can accuse the Dutch state owned railway of many things but not for a lack of vision. Almere is to build another 50.000 houses in the next decade and as a response to this the rail corridor to Amsterdam and Schiphol airport is being upgraded to handle twice as many trains before it is actually needed.
In the UK, and especially around London overcrowding is battled by even more fare increases or yet another platform extension. Increasing fares is only good for the company’s cash-flow, but not in the interest of it’s passengers. Platform extensions are only a short term solution but not adequate to cope with the demand expected in the next twenty to thirty years. And although that seems to be far into the future, we have reached that point long since. Ask the commuters at Hither Green what they think about their South Eastern when they are faced with severely overcrowded trains and have to squeeze themselves in on their daily commute to London.
The solution for London can be found in and around Amsterdam. If you don’t have the space for longer trains, or when you faced the limits of your network capacity a while ago, there is still space to expand and gain a good forty five percent increase in available capacity by going up. Add a second deck to your train and magic things will happen. Large doors will allow passengers to board and alight fast, two decks will allow more people to find a seat or to travel by train. The TOC might even use less trains to London, resulting in some capacity relief, the queues to London Bridge are something of the past and as a result travel times to the capital are reduced by an average of 7 minutes per train.
And yes, it will take a long time for this to happen, and it will be as expansive as building Crossrail. But the good thing is that you can order trains from the shelve and get them relatively cheap. You can transport many more people, you can speed up services into London, you can board a train at half past eight in the hight of the morning peak and you can find a seat. And what’s more important, you do have the capacity in place to move London for the next fifty years.
Abonneren op:
Posts (Atom)